European Capacity for Monitoring and Assimilating Space-based Climate Change Observations - Status and Prospects

This report, which is based on the findings of a workshop at Ispra in March 2009, provides the scientific background to a forthcoming Commission response to the Space and Competitiveness councils requests that the commission assess the needs for full access to standardised climate change data, the means to provide these data and together with ESA, EUMETSAT and the scientific community define how GMES services can contribute effectively to providing these data. The report therefore focuses primarily, but not exclusively, on space-based Climate data sources. Standardised climate data are needed for climate monitoring, prediction and research, while climate information informs the policy cycle at four key points - Policy definition; Management and scenario building; Reporting requirements; Alarm functions. The workshop identified the 44 Essential Climate Variables defined by GCOS as the minimum set of standardised climate data that the commission should be considering and a gap analysis for the provision of these observations was undertaken. In addition European capacity is analysed according to maturity, differentiating between sustained operational capacity (Envelope Missions/EUMETSAT), non-operationally funded repetitive capacity and additional infrastructure needs in order to fill the gaps are identified. Finally the report discusses co-ordination and governance issues and how to overcome them. The key findings and recommendations are contained in an executive summary.JRC.DDG.H.2-Climate chang

The use of AVHRR data for large area vegetation studies

This thesis compares the attributes and limitations of the various Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data types for large area vegetation studies in the context of global change research. In chapter 1, some of the major scientific issues customarily associated with the Global Change concept are outlined, and the specific role of vegetation dynamics in the earth's energy, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles is discussed. Deficiencies in currently available global vegetation data sets and the role of remote sensing as a new source of information are reviewed. This review is supplemented by detailed discussion of the spectral properties of vegetation, soil and water in chapter 2. In chapter 3 the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Perpendicular Vegetation Index (PVI) from 1 km resolution AVHRR High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) data are compared as a means of providing biomass estimates for large geographical areas. The PVI provides better measures of biomass than NDVI, particularly where cover is sparse. Caution in the use of NDVI is recommended. Problems of accurate ground location because of the AVHRR's coarse resolution are highlighted. High resolution (80 m) satellite imagery from the Landsat Multi Spectral Scanner (MSS) is shown to be an effective intermediate step. Comparison with MSS also shows the effect of landscape structure on areal estimates of vegetation cover from the AVHRR HRPT. In chapter 4, MSS and HRPT comparisons show that sensor-induced spatial autocorrelation in AVHRR HRPT data can limit the use of these data for the identification of spatial structure and pattern at full resolution. The same limitation on the use of full resolution data is also found to apply to the spatially sampled AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC) archives. In this case local variance induced by sampling in GAC data generation is thought to be the cause. In chapter 5 the structural analysis is extended across a range of resolutions. Sampling artefacts are found for all West African ecosystems at full GAC resolution (4 km), though at coarse resolutions spatial patterns observed with the GAC and the unsampled AVHRR HRPT are very similar. Differences between the two are most pronounced where landscape features are either points or lines. A resolution of 12 km is found to suppress the negative effects of the sampling for all West African ecosystems. At resolutions coarser than 12 km, the GAC data are just as good a measure of landscape structure as the unsampled data. The relevance of these coarse measurement scales to global change research is discussed. Chapter 6 shows that transitions across major ecological zones can be detected at resolutions coarser than 12 km, though the agreement between the sampled and unsampled AVHRR changes both with geographical location and time. This is particularly so for ecosystems affected by fire. Fire is increasingly recognised as a key factor in both the study of global vegetation dynamics directly, and for global change research. This is the focus of chapter 7. Problems relating to the poor sensitivity of the AVHRR's middle-infrared and thermal channels are identified and resolved. The GAC sampling method is shown to affect the sensitivity of these data for fire detection in relation to ecosystem and season. Regional stratification is highlighted as a means of improving fire analysis over large areas, improving land cover classification, and helping in the definition of new cover classes (particularly at continental and global scales) Finally, the results of the previous chapters are discussed with reference to the existing and planned processed AVHRR data archives. The importance of the 12 km limit with reference to the GAC archives is stressed, the need for circumspection in the use of NDVI reiterated, particularly with reference to the derivation of physical measurements from AVHRR, and the requirement for new synergistic approaches to the use of AVHRR with other data emphasised.Ph

Potential improvement for forest cover and forest degradation mapping with the forthcoming sentinel-2 program

The forthcoming European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 mission promises to provide high (10 m) resolution optical data at higher temporal frequencies (5 day revisit with two operational satellites) than previously available. CNES, the French national space agency, launched a program in 2013, ‘SPOT4 take 5’, to simulate such a dataflow using the SPOT HRV sensor, which has similar spectral characteristics to the Sentinel sensor, but lower (20m) spatial resolution. Such data flow enables the analysis of the satellite images using temporal analysis, an approach previously restricted to lower spatial resolution sensors. We acquired 23 such images over Tanzania for the period from February to June 2013. The data were analysed with aim of discriminating between different forest cover percentages for landscape units of 0.5 ha over a site characterised by deciduous intact and degraded forests. The SPOT data were processed by one extracting temporal vegetation indices. We assessed the impact of the high acquisition rate with respect to the current rate of one image every 16 days. Validation data, giving the percentage of forest canopy cover in each land unit were provided by very high resolution satellite data. Results show that using the full temporal series it is possible to discriminate between forest units with differences of more than 40% tree cover or more. Classification errors fell exclusively into the adjacent forest canopy cover class of 20% or less. The analyses show that forestation mapping and degradation monitoring will be substantially improved with the Sentinel-2 programJRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Refractory chronic GVHD emerging after splenectomy in a marrow transplant recipient with accelerated phase CML

We report a 39-year-old female patient who underwent HLA-identical sibling allogeneic BMT for CML in accelerated phase. Severe pancytopenia refractory to G-CSF associated with progressive splenomegaly and RBC/ platelet transfusion dependency were present from day + 60 after BMT. MRD assessed by FISH and RT-PCR multiplex for BCR-ABL rearrangement was negative, and complete chimerism was documented by VNTR on days + 100, + 180, + 360 and 2 years after BMT. Splenectomy was performed on day + 225 and pancytopenia resolved but chronic extensive graft-versus-host disease developed, with hepatic cholestasis, diffuse scleroderma and sicca-like syndrome. She was sequentially and progressively treated with different immunosuppressive therapy combinations with no clear benefit. On day + 940, she presented with infection over the previously present ulcers on both limbs, which culminated in septic shock and death on day + 1041. We conclude that, although splenectomy may reverse poor graft function after allogeneic BMT, hyposplenism may trigger or worsen chronic extensive GVHD leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Hosp São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilHosp São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Atlas of Global Surface Water Dynamics

It is impossible to overstate the importance of freshwater in our daily lives – for proof, try going without it for any length of time. Surface waterbodies (lakes, ponds, rivers, creeks, estuaries… it doesn't matter what name they go under) are particularly important because they come into direct contact with us and our biophysical environment. But our knowledge concerning where and when waterbodies might be found was, until recently, surprisingly sparse. The paucity of information was because trying to map a moving target is actually very difficult – and waterbodies undeniably move, in both geographical space and time. By 2013 the U.S. Geological Survey and NASA were making petabyte scale archives of satellite imagery freely available, archives that covered the entire planet's surface and stretched back decades. Other's such as the European Commission / European Space Agency Copernicus programme were also putting full free and open data access policies into place, and Google's Earth Engine had become a mature, powerful cloud-based platform for processing very large geospatial datasets. Back in 2013 a small team working at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre were looking at ways satellite imagery could be used to capture surface waterbody dynamics, and create new maps that accurately incorporated time dimensions. Concurrently the Google Earth Engine team were focussing their massive computational capabilities on major issues facing humanity, such as deforestation, food security, climate change - and water management. The two teams came together in a partnership based not on financial transactions but on a mutual exchange of complementary capabilities, and devoted thousands of person hours and thousands of CPU years into turning petabytes of Landsat satellite imagery into unique, validated surface water maps, first published in 2016, and made available to everyone through a dedicated web portal, the Global Surface Water Explorer. Since then satellites have continued to image the Earth, surface water has continued to change and the JRC Goole Earth Engine partnership has continued to work on improving our knowledge of surface water dynamics and making sure this knowledge benefits as many people as possible. This Atlas is part of the outreach; it is not a guide to the Global Surface Water Explorer, it is not a Google Earth Engine tutorial (though if it inspires you to visit either of these resources then it has achieved one of its objectives), but it is a stand-alone window into how people and nature affect, and are affected by the 4.46 million km2 of the Earth's landmass that have been under water at some time over the past 35 years.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Spatial-Temporal Correlation Analyses of Global Burned Surface Time Series from Remote Sensing Data (1982-1999)

Daily global observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) on the series of meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) between 1982 and 1999 (17 years) were used to generate a new weekly global burnt surface product at a resolution of 8km. Comparison with independently available information on fire locations and timing suggest that whilst the time-series cannot yet be used to make accuracy and quantitative estimates of global burnt area, it does provide a reliable estimate of changes in location, season and interannual variability of burning on the global scale (Carmona-Moreno et al., 2005.a). This paper deals with the connection analysis of this time series and “El Niño” Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The spatial-temporal inter-correlation analyses show likely connections between both phenomena at global scale during the period considered even if these results need to be confirmed with longer time series (>40 years) of data.JRC.DDG.H.3-Global environement monitorin

Copernicus and Earth observation in support of EU policies

The Copernicus programme for Earth observation represents a big investment by the EU, justified by expected returns in public governance and private business. Copernicus is user and policy driven, and provides cross-domain products and services with a full free and open data policy and where possible taking up new technologies and research. This study has made a survey of the extent that Copernicus is used to support policy making in the European Commission, also assessing the perspectives for increased uptake. Also other Earth observation data and information has been looked at. An extensive use of the services is observed for policies monitoring landuse, climatic and environmental conditions, and this is expected to increase further with e.g. the new Common Agricultural Policy and the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Regulation. Information of the Climate Change Service on optimal land-use targeting specific human activities, harnessing the beneficial opportunities of climate change, provides policy makers with a new set of adaptation measures. While air quality measures can be monitored by the atmosphere service, the marine service provides input to the information system for marine knowledge. The emergency service supports disaster risk reduction measures and a resilient build-up of society. Security is of increasing importance where land and water resources are at the origin of conflict and migration. Several lines of action have been identified to improve uptake: Increasing engagement within the policy Directorates-General, fostering feedback loops between the end-users and Copernicus services, Increasing communication, information and training, setting standards and guaranteeing quality controls, enabling full integration of different datasets. The Copernicus programme brings a unique opportunity to the EU for being a global player, addressing SDGs and International Conventions because of its a long-term sustained commitment and strong international dimension. No such space programme is currently available elsewhere.JRC.D.6-Knowledge for Sustainable Development and Food Securit

State and evolution of the African rainforests between 1990 and 2010

This paper presents a 2005 map of Africa’s rainforests with new levels of spatial and thematic detail, being derived from 250m resolution MODIS data, and having an overall accuracy of 84%. A systematic sample of Landsat images (with supplemental data from equivalent platforms to fill sample gaps) is used to produce a consistent assessment of deforestation between 1990, 2000 and 2010 for West Africa, Central Africa and Madagascar. Net deforestation is estimated at 0.28% yr-1 for the period 1990-2000 and 0.14% yr-1 for the period 2000-2010. West Africa and Madagascar exhibit a much higher deforestation rate than the Congo Basin. Based on a simple analysis of the variance over the Congo Basin, we show that expanding agriculture and increasing fuelwood demands are key drivers of deforestation while well-controlled timber exploitation programmes have little or no direct influence on forest-cover reduction at present. Rural and urban population concentrations and fluxes are identified as strong underlying causes of deforestation in this study.JRC.H.5-Land Resources Managemen

Challenges of a Sustained Climate Observing System

Observations of planet Earth and especially all climate system components and forcings are increasingly needed for planning and informed decision making related to climate services in the broadest sense. Although significant progress has been made, much more remains to be done before a fully functional and dependable climate observing system exists. Observations are needed on spatial scales from local to global, and all time scales, especially to understand and document changes in extreme events. Climate change caused by human activities adds a new dimension and a vital imperative: to acquire climate observations of sufficient quality and coverage, and analyze them into products for multiple purposes to inform decisions for mitigation, adaptation, assessing vulnerability and impacts, possible geoengineering, and predicting climate variability and change and their consequences. A major challenge is to adequately deal with the continually changing observing system, especially from satellites and other remote sensing platforms such as in the ocean, in order to provide a continuous climate record. Even with new computational tools, challenges remain to provide adequate analysis, processing, meta-data, archival, access, and management of the resulting data and the data products. As volumes of data continue to grow, so do the challenges of distilling information to allow us to understand what is happening and why, and what the implications are for the future. The case is compelling that prompt coordinated international actions are essential to provide for information-based actions and decisions related to climate variability and change

On the use of marker data to determine the kinetics of the digestive behaviour of feeds

A model of the transport process that follows the progress of digesta successively through the small intestine of a monogastric is investigated. The process is multi-phase and multi-constituent, as described in detail by Bastianelli et al. [J. Anim. Sci., 74:1873–1887, 1996]. The model describes the movement of marker substances that are used to obtain data on the interactions between the intestinal sections and digesta with differing levels of soluble fibre. A multi-stage process is modelled by a set of coupled first order linear differential equations. Solutions of steady and initial value problems provide information on the transfer rates of the processes. Properties of the solutions as functions of system parameters are examined. References M. Renton, J. Hanan and K. Burrage, Using the canonical modelling approach to simplify the simulation of function in functional-structural plant models. New Phytologist, 166:845–857, 2005. doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2005.01330.x D. Bastianelli, D. Sauvant and A. Rerat, Mathematical modeling of digestion and nutrient absorption in pigs. J. Animal Science, 74:1873–1887, 1996. http://www.journalofanimalscience.org/content/74/8/1873.abstract R. G. Lentle and P. W. M. Janssen, Manipulating Digestion with Foods designed to Change the Physical Characteristics of digesta. Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, 50:130–145, 2010. doi:10.1080/10408390802248726 J. France, J. H. M. Thornley, M. S. Dhanoa and R. C. Siddons, On the mathematics of digesta flow kinetics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 113:743–758, 1985. doi:10.1016/S0022-5193(85)80191-0 A. Mazanov and J. V. Nolan, Simulation of the dynamics of nitrogen metabolism in sheep. British Journal of Nutrition, 35:149–174, 1976. doi:10.1079/BJN19760017 A. Mazanov, Stability of Multi-pool Models with Lags. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 59:429–442, 1976. doi:10.1016/0022-5193(76)90181-